Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
